Structural changes, employment outcomes, and population adjustments among whites and blacks: 1980-1990

Earnings and employment deteriorated the most for young, less- educated, and/or black males in the 1980s. The most severe deterioration for blacks occurred in the North-Central regions. The causes of such regional and demographic variation in outcomes include a greater severity of demand shifts away from these groups and areas, as well as the greater relative impacts of such shifts on the earnings and employment of these demographic groups. Relative supply shifts across areas also contributed somewhat to the observed employment outcomes. There is some evidence of short-run population shifts across areas and groups that at least partially offset the negative demand changes described above. But younger and less-educated workers, especially among blacks, showed substantially lower population adjustments and migration in this time period in response to these demand shifts. The educational improvements of blacks during this decade also lagged behind. These limited supply responses apparently contributed somewhat to the severity of the demand effects on the employment and earnings of these groups during the 1980s. The data used here are from the Public Use Samples of the 1980 and 1990 Censuses and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Implications of skill-biased technological change: international evidence

Demand for less skilled workers decreased dramatically in the US and in other developed countries over the past two decades. WE argue that pervasive skill-biased technological change, rather than increased trade with the development world, is the principal culprit. The pervasiveness of this technological change is important for two reasons. Firstly, it is an immediate and testable implication of technological change. Secondly, under standard assumptions, the more pervasive the skill-biased technological, the greater the increase in the embodied supply of less skilled workers and the greater the increase in the embodied supply if less skilled workers and the greater the increases in the embodied supply of less skilled workers and the greater the depressing effect on their relative wages through world goods prices. In contrast, in the Heckscher-Ohlin model with small open economies the skill-bias of local technological changes does not affect wages. Thus, pervasiveness deals with a major criticism of skill-biased technological as a cause. Testing the implications of pervasive, skill-biased technological change, we find strong supporting evidence. Firstly, across the OECD, most industries have increased the proportion of skilled workers employed, despite rising or stable relative wages. Secondly, increases in demand for skills were concentrated in the same manufacturing industries in different developed countries

Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s

In this paper we explore the effects of labor demand shifts and population adjustments across metropolitan areas on the employment and earnings of various demographic groups during the 1980s. Results show that, although earnings and employment deteriorated for less-education and black males in most areas in the 1980s, there was a good deal of geographic variation in the magnitudes of these changes. Shifts in labor demand across local areas contributed to this variation, and had greater relative impacts on the earnings and employment of these demographic groups. We also find that popu- lation shifts across areas, presumably due to migation, at least partially offset the effects of these demand shifts. But less-education workers showed substantially lower population adjustments in response to these demand shifts. These limited supply responses apparently contributed importantly to relatively greater deterioration of employment and earnings of these groups in declining areas during the 1980s.

Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence

Demand for less skilled workers decreased dramatically in the US and in other developed countries over the past two decades. WE argue that pervasive skill-biased technological change, rather than increased trade with the development world, is the principal culprit. The pervasiveness of this technological change is important for two reasons. Firstly, it is an immediate and testable implication of technological change. Secondly, under standard assumptions, the more pervasive the skill-biased technological, the greater the increase in the embodied supply of less skilled workers and the greater the increase in the embodied supply if less skilled workers and the greater the increases in the embodied supply of less skilled workers and the greater the depressing effect on their relative wages through world goods prices. In contrast, in the Heckscher-Ohlin model with small open economies the skill-bias of local technological changes does not affect wages. Thus, pervasiveness deals with a major criticism of skill-biased technological as a cause. Testing the implications of pervasive, skill-biased technological change, we find strong supporting evidence. Firstly, across the OECD, most industries have increased the proportion of skilled workers employed, despite rising or stable relative wages. Secondly, increases in demand for skills were concentrated in the same manufacturing industries in different developed countries.

Measurement Error In Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Labor Market Surveys: Results From Two Validation Studies

This paper reports evidence on the error properties of survey reports of labor market variables such as earnings and work hours. Our primary data source is the PSID Validation Study, a two-wave panel survey of a sample of workers employed by a large firm which also allowed us access to its very detailed records of its workers earnings. etc. The second data source uses individuals' 1977 and 1978 (March Current Population Survey) reports of earnings, matched to Social Security earnings records. In both data sets, individuals: reports of earnings are fairly accurately reported, and the errors are negatively related to true earnings. The latter property reduces the bias due to measurement error when earnings are used as an independent variable, but (unlike the classical-error case) leads to some bias when earnings are the dependent variable. Measurement-error-induced biases when change in earnings is the variable of interest are larger, but not dramatically so. Various measures of hourly earnings were much less reliable than annual earnings. Retrospective reports of unemployment showed considerable under-reporting, even of long spells.

Involvement of deprivation and environmental lead in neural tube defects:a matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVE. To analyse the prevalence of neural tube defects in small geographical areas and seek to explain any spatial variations with reference to environmental lead and deprivation. SETTING. The Fylde of Lancashire in the north west of England. DESIGNCases were ascertained as part of a prospective survey of major congenital malformations in babies born in the Fylde to residents there between 1957 and 1981. A matched case-control analysis used infants with cardiovascular system, alimentary tract, and urinary system malformations as controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of more than 10 µg/l lead in drinking water and the Townsend deprivation score. RESULTS. The prevalence of neural tube defects in 1957-73 was higher in Blackpool, Fleetwood, and North Fylde, whereas the three control groups showed no significant spatial variation. In 1957-81 mothers living in electoral wards with either a higher proportion of houses with more than 10 µg/l lead in the water or a higher deprivation score had a greater risk of having a baby with a neural tube defect. For spina bifida and cranium bifidum alone, this was also true. For anencephaly, deprivation was less important although the effect of lead was still seen. In some neural tube defects, lead may act independently of other possible factors associated with deprivation. It seemed unlikely that lead levels changed significantly during the survey. The percentage of houses with 10 µg/l or more of lead in the water in 1984-5 was similar to that found in Great Britain 10 years previously. CONCLUSION. There is evidence to suggest that lead is one cause of neural tube defects, especially anencephaly. This could link the known preventive actions of hard water and folic acid. Calcium is a toxicological antagonist of lead. One cause of a deficiency of folic acid is impaired absorption secondary to zinc deficiency, which may be produced or exacerbated by lead

Relationships of the early insulin secretory response and oral disposition index with gastric emptying in subjects with normal glucose tolerance

The oral disposition index, the product of the early insulin secretory response during an oral glucose tolerance test and insulin sensitivity, is used widely for both the prediction of, and evaluation of the response to interventions, in type 2 diabetes. Gastric emptying, which determines small intestinal exposure of nutrients, modulates postprandial glycemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether the insulin secretory response and the disposition index (DI) related to gastric emptying in subjects with normal glucose tolerance. Thirty-nine subjects consumed a 350 mL drink containing 75 g glucose labeled with 99mTc-sulfur colloid. Gastric emptying (by scintigraphy), blood glucose (G) and plasma insulin (I) were measured between t = 0-120 min. The rate of gastric emptying was derived from the time taken for 50% emptying (T50) and expressed as kcal/min. The early insulin secretory response was estimated by the ratio of the change in insulin (∆I0-30) to that of glucose at 30 min (∆G0-30) represented as ∆I0-30/∆G0-30 Insulin sensitivity was estimated as 1/fasting insulin and the DI was then calculated as ∆I0-30/∆G0-30 × 1/fasting insulin. There was a direct relationship between ∆G0-30 and gastric emptying (r = 0.47, P = 0.003). While there was no association of either ∆I0-30 (r = -0.16, P = 0.34) or fasting insulin (r = 0.21, P = 0.20), there were inverse relationships between the early insulin secretory response (r = -0.45, P = 0.004) and the DI (r = -0.33, P = 0.041), with gastric emptying. We conclude that gastric emptying is associated with both insulin secretion and the disposition index in subjects with normal glucose tolerance, such that when gastric emptying is relatively more rapid, both the early insulin secretory response and the disposition index are less. These findings should be interpreted as "hypothesis generating" and provide the rationale for longitudinal studies to examine the impact of baseline rate of gastric emptying on the prospective risk of type 2 diabetes.Chinmay S. Marathe, Christopher K. Rayner, Kylie Lange, Michelle Bound, Judith Wishart, Karen L. Jones, Steven E. Kahn and Michael Horowit

Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males

In this paper we estimate the effects of industrial shifts in the 1970s and 1980s on the wages and employment of black and white males. We use micro Census data for 52 MSAs, and estimate effects separately by age and education group. The results show that industrial shifts did reduce demand for blacks and 1essskilled males in 1970s and 1980s. Demand shifts away from manufacturing, in particular, reduced employment and wages for black and white males. While the magnitudes of these effects are fairly small for many groups, they can account for one-third to one-half of the employment decline for less-educated young blacks in the 1970s. These results imply fairly large effects on the earnings of less-skilled males in the 1980s as well.

Robust implications on Dark Matter from the first FERMI sky gamma map

We derive robust model-independent bounds on DM annihilations and decays from the first year of FERMI gamma-ray observations of the whole sky. These bounds only have a mild dependence on the DM density profile and allow the following DM interpretations of the PAMELA and FERMI electron/positron excesses: primary channels mu+ mu-, mu+ mu-mu+mu- or e+ e- e+ e-. An isothermal-like density profile is needed for annihilating DM. In all such cases, FERMI gamma spectra must contain a significant DM component, that may be probed in the future.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures. Final versio